Global forecasters have recently suggested that the world economy is headed for a soft landing. Our latest market stress test looks at how this and other, less benign scenarios could affect a multi-asset-class portfolio in the coming months. 

Markets seem to be priced for a soft landing, in which inflation returns closer to target levels and recession is avoided. We also consider two potential downside-risk scenarios: a hard landing and a resurgence of inflation. 

How could higher global rates for longer than expected affect a global portfolio of equities, bonds and real estate? In our new quarterly series, Macro Scenarios in Focus, we consider four potential paths for the global economy and conduct a portfolio stress test.

Investor sentiment has improved since the recent banking turmoil, and a soft landing for the U.S. economy seems possible. But there is geographic fragmentation, with China’s post-lockdown recovery potentially stalling. What could it mean for markets? 

In the wake of the recent banking turmoil, a soft landing for the U.S. economy now seems less likely than at the beginning of the year. We considered four scenarios and performed a stress test on a hypothetical portfolio of global stocks and U.S. bonds.

The macroeconomic landscape for 2023 is shrouded in uncertainty following a tumultuous 2022. We consider four scenarios for growth, rates and inflation and gauge their potential impact on a portfolio of global equities and U.S. bonds.

While a U.S. railroad strike was averted in September, and the U.S. Congress is currently working on legislation to prevent the planned December strike, there is a chance it might not be avoided this time. What’s the potential impact on portfolios?

Investors are increasingly focused on inflation and the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy. With the Russia-Ukraine war and resulting sanctions, they may also worry about slowing economic growth. We model three economic scenarios’ potential impact on markets.